Boy, was I wrong!

I like to think of myself as a clever and thoughtful person, but I have a pretty terrible track record of making political predictions. My most recent post here, prior to this one, is a stand-out example of my pathetic prognostication.

The best way to learn from your mistakes is to own them and dive in to understand why you made them so that’s what I am going to do now.

Recap

For those who missed it, the article was called “Epstein: You will be disappointed.” It was written in early September 2025 and the upshot was to argue that the files would not likely be released, that what they contained would not have a serious impact on the political situation, and that they likely didn’t contain sufficiently incriminating evidence beyond Maxwell and Epstein to put anyone behind bars. I was wrong on nearly every level.

The files were released, mostly

Some 3+ million files have been released. Many, as expected, were heavily redacted, and there are apparently millions more that have yet to be released. The Justice Department claims they have put everything out that they have been ordered to. I suspect we may yet see the rest as the blood is well in the water at this point.

I underestimated the determination of those who were keen to see them come out and the willingness of some politicians on the GOP side to buck their president and get them out. I was also shocked that Trump signed off on their release, though he is an idiot so nothing he does should shock me. I also failed to comprehend just how bad the DOJ could be at redaction efforts, both in blatantly redacting things that have nothing to do with protecting victims and being bad at protecting victims. So while I was correct that there is a lot missing, I failed to account for how much they would fail to conceal.

I also misjudged the Biden administration’s lack of interest in exposing this information. I presumed that it must not have been sufficiently damaging to their opponents. That’s obviously not the case. Perhaps they wanted to protect allies, though most of the people in those files are not contemporary allies. Perhaps they just didn’t know and the FBI didn’t want them to know, but secrets like these are hard to keep hidden in the halls of power.

They are full of incriminating information

While plenty of it may fall well short of what could get a sure-fire conviction, there is so much smoke here that any TV detective would be drooling to follow up in an investigation. Certainly, people have been investigated and prosecuted based on far less leading evidence than are in the Epstein files we have seen. Overseas, other nations are launching investigations of powerful individuals who abused their authority and dishonored themselves by what was revealed.

I’m honestly shocked, not by the fact that people did terrible things, but that so many people were clearly complicit with these terrible things, or willing to completely look the other way when they knew full well they were happening. I shouldn’t be. People have time and time again demonstrated that sex and money are consistent lures to cause people to do or tolerate terrible things. Naively, I thought people engaged in this kind of activity would try to hide it better and would be afraid of being exposed by involving others.

My eyes were opened

Not only was I wrong about what would happen and why, I now have a different outlook than I did before. My consideration of humanity in general is diminished. I’m much more apt to see anyone with opulent wealth and power as likely being corrupt and immoral. I think the FBI has shamed itself, not only under its new, ultra-corrupt leadership, but all its modern history.

I used to think that when someone was so thuroughly exposed, that nearly anyone of reasonable concious would decry what they see. But we can see that there are people who will close their eyes to everything under the sun rather than admit they had poor judgment. I’m now more apt to believe someone when they say there is a secret cabal of X, Y, or Z doing lord knows what. I have to at least consider it as a real possibility unless it involves supernatural hijinks.